Investors, economists and the media spend an enormous amount of time and energy trying to forecast the economy. The idea is that forecasting economic growth will give us an idea of where the stock market is headed. Surprisingly, no predictive relationship exists between current economic conditions and the current stock market.

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Investors are likely looking at their portfolios and trying to determine how the volatile fourth quarter impacted their returns and how it impacted progress toward their financial goals. Having the market pull back -14% in a single quarter and drop -5% for the year is tough, but for taxable investors, the possible tax hit will add insult to injury.

Rather surprisingly, the equity strategy framework can provide an estimate of current expected stock market returns. This is accomplished by measuring the recent investor response to each strategy, which, it turns out, captures the deep behavioral currents driving market returns. The resulting information is useful when managing equity market exposure.   

With the recent market decline, increased volatility and the deafening media noise, it can be easy to lose track of the basics. Remember, recent activity doesn’t tell us much about market returns.