Slower growth. Rising rates. More volatility. 2019 looks to be a year that could be challenging for investors. Yet we believe the markets offer a range of opportunities, and we are finding a number of investment ideas for our clients.

Domestic equity markets ended the month of November in positive territory, despite continued volatility that was introduced by the previous month’s sell-off.

U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, trade wars, China uncertainty, Italy and Brexit imply 2018’s volatility should continue into 2019. Our models indicate the U.S. recession danger zone is 2020, which gives equity markets some upside. But late-cycle risks are rising.

The municipal bond market weakened during the third quarter, as a change in supply and demand patterns made it more vulnerable to rising interest rates. While new issuance increased during the quarter, year-to-date it remained significantly below the same nine-month period in 2017.

Understanding the current—and potentially future—state of the global economy helps investors put market movements into context. To promote that understanding, researchers from Vanguard Investment Strategy Group examine the economic trends that affect the investing environment in this new series. Below are their latest insights into Global Macro Matters.

As the global economy enters its tenth year of expansion following the global financial crisis, concerns are growing that a recession may be imminent. Although several factors will raise the risk of recession in 2019, a slowdown in growth—led by the United States and China—is the most likely outcome. In short, economic growth should shift down but not out.

Now that the US mid-term elections are behind us, it is a good time to reflect on the potential implications for an asset class that might not spring to mind: emerging markets equity.

We maintain a risk-on stance in U.S. equities, as the near-term risk of a recession remains low. Investors with a cautious outlook can take steps to improve outcomes at the end of the market cycle.

This year has provided a wake-up call to fixed income investors that, yes, interest rates can rise and they can rise quickly. While the sharp increase in Treasury yields dented total returns on diversified fixed income portfolios, we believe it will still be possible to earn good returns over the next few years.

The U.S. equity bull market is over nine years old, but continues to grind on thanks to stronger sales and the reduced corporate tax rate. While the rally is undoubtedly long in the tooth, we don’t expect it to die of old age.

Nine years into what may turn out to be the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, we are starting to see signs that a recession may finally be on its way. Interest rates are on the rise, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is flatter. We see no reason to dramatically shift one’s investment approach at this stage, but we are beginning to make changes to our strategies to prepare for the end of the cycle.

From an economic and markets perspective, the election results probably matter less than many think. Rising federal debt and deficit levels will limit Washington’s ability to accomplish much over the next two years.

The domestic equity markets fell sharply in October amidst high volatility, with big swings day to day, and in some cases, intraday. After leading the way up over the last six months, the growth indices led the way down in the reversal, driven by steep losses in the largest technology names, such as Amazon and Netflix, both down roughly 20%.

October’s market volatility showed us signs that we may be in the late stages of the current bull market. Help your clients keep their emotions in check and prepare for more market uncertainty with these six steps.

Investors continuously look for an edge, seeking to maximize returns relative to risks. Favored strategies change cyclically, or trend during certain market environments, but one has always been in style: value investing.

Understanding the current—and potentially future—state of the global economy helps investors put market movements into context. To promote that understanding, researchers from Vanguard Investment Strategy Group examine the economic trends that affect the investing environment in this new series.