U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly last week, led by shorter maturities, despite disappointing consumer data. Passage of a government funding bill and optimism over U.S./China negotiations trade sustained rising rates.
Last week, I discussed several “swords of Damocles” that have been hanging over markets. One of those was removed last week when US President Donald Trump signed a bill to continue funding the US government.
The equity market rally that began at the end of December continued last week, with U.S. stocks rising 2.6%, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Energy led the way, thanks to a 5% jump in oil prices.
The December 2018 National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Survey of Small Business Economic Trends revealed a second year of historic readings which surpassed record levels achieved in 2017.
Following one of the most difficult Decembers in recent years for equity markets, investors surely are pleased to see 2019 begin with a rally in risk assets. One of the key factors fueling this risk appetite is the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) tone on monetary policy.
Where is the U.S. dollar headed after its sizable appreciation in 2018? It depends on your vantage point. The dollar has gained against most developed market (DM) currencies, but depreciated against emerging market (EM) counterparts so far this year. We see this trend as likely to run on in the short term in the absence of policy surprises.
Market Week in Review: A December to not remember - What drove the recent plunge in U.S. retail sales?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist Erik Ristuben and Rob Cittadini, director, Americas institutional, discussed slumping U.S. retail sales, stalled economic growth in Germany and the latest numbers from fourth-quarter earnings season.
Investors, economists and the media spend an enormous amount of time and energy trying to forecast the economy. The idea is that forecasting economic growth will give us an idea of where the stock market is headed. Surprisingly, no predictive relationship exists between current economic conditions and the current stock market.
In the United States, this is a week marked by big spending. As the week began, the U.S. national debt hit the $22 trillion mark – a staggering sum that has nearly doubled over the last decade. But that’s actually not the most daunting news-making figure you’ll hear today.