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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Jackson Hole Comments Contribute to Stock Decline, U.S. Jobs Market Expected to Remain Strong
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Investors give about a 65% chance of a 0.75% Fed rate hike in September. The U.S. jobs report on Friday is expected to show 3.5% unemployment and 300,000 jobs added.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
MarketScape: Inflation May Have Peaked, but Uncertainty Looms
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Stocks have rebounded on signs that U.S. inflation may have peaked, but investors face potentially muted returns while the risk of sticky inflation remains.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
MarketScape: A 50/50 U.S. Recession Risk
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Chief Investment Strategist Jim McDonald examines the economic risks investors face.
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Bonds: 2023 U.S. States Outlook
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Revenue above expectations, pandemic federal aid and reserves have strengthened states' financial outlook. But states will need to prepare as pandemic aid winds down and the economy slows.
Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
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One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
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Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.