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Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
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One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
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Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.
Investing Ideas
What is a Stock Worth?
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Implications for Equity Investing at Historic Valuations
Fixed Income Insights
The Dire Outlook for Bonds in the Wake of COVID-19
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This brief update revisits the main tenets of “The Bleak Future of Bonds” paper and provides updates to some key numbers in the aftermath of the COVID-19/coronavirus crisis and what this means for portfolio construction going forward.
Market Outlooks
Historic Volatility, Election Uncertainty, & The Fed’s Dilemma
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Marc’s Market Insights
Market Outlooks
Stimulus Stalled, An Antitrust Storm, & More Market Turbulence
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Redefining Income in a Low Yield World: Historically, investors in or near retirement have relied primarily on bonds for “mailbox money” necessary to fund their golden years. Going forward, investors and advisors will need to redefine their concept of “income” and reconsider how they fill their “mailbox”.
Fixed Income Insights
The Dire Outlook for Bonds in the Wake of COVID-19
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Over the coming decade or two, bonds are unlikely to fulfill their dual role of income and capital preservation. Bond investors will be forced to choose between income or capital preservation, and there is a good chance they could end up with neither.
Behavioral Finance
How to Address Recency Bias with Clients
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Behavioral Finance – Actionable Insights for advisors to help investors battle biases, avoid chasing returns, buying yesterday’s winners, and extrapolating a string of short-term wins indefinitely into the future
Fixed Income Insights
The Dangers in High Yield Bonds & CLOs
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Worth the Risk? Investors in this space have always emphasized higher levels of income or growth rather than capital preservation. While these investments are often termed “speculative,” are investors truly aware of the amount of risk in these asset classes?
Fixed Income Insights
Chasing Yield
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The Dangers and Pitfalls of Fixed Income in a Low-Yield World