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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
3 Points About China
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Clamping down on China has become a bipartisan effort in the United States, but I believe an outright conflict between China and Taiwan is a low-probability (albeit high-impact) event—and I remain constructive on the bottom-up, long-term investment opportunities in China, including the transition to a domestic-consumption-driven and lower-carbon economy.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
The Active Share: Are Microchips the New Oil?
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Microchips are the building blocks of the modern economy, but what are the geopolitical implications of this new power player?
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Recession Resistance: Can We Prove That Recessions Don't Matter?
Increasingly, investors seem focused on the potential for a recession. In this webcast, we discuss...
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
PodCast: Episode 34: Revenge of the Old Economy
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Low interest rates and a focus on being green led to significant underinvestment in the old economy. Netflix rose and Exxon fell. But we’re now beginning a rotation away from the new economy back to the old, says Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode of The Active Share, Jeff tells Hugo how he sees the future of energy, from green tech to oil, from the east to the west—who will win, who will lose, and how investors can prepare.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
China: Reopening Should Drive Growth
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After a year of anemic growth—by China’s standards—we expect a recovery in Chinese economic activity to gradually take place in 2023. The government has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and re-pivoted to growth, and the reopening, combined with a benign inflationary environment that gives China’s policymakers room to increase stimulus, we believe is a reason for optimism in 2023. That said, major policy questions and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
The End of the World As We Know It
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There’s no debating that we’re in tumultuous times, but who’s coming out ahead and who will be left behind? We asked geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan...