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Portfolio Construction Insights
EPISODE #2: USING PROBABILITIES TO AVOID THE LOSERS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO
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Probability plays a key role in many aspects of everyday life, yet many people fail to understand the math that guides it.
Portfolio Construction Insights
EPISODE #1: AN INTRO TO NEW AGE ALPHA
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There is a risk inside your portfolio that you are unaware of that leads to loss and you don’t get paid for taking it.
Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
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One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
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Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.
Behavioral Finance
Focused expertise
There have been many restrictions placed on the normal rhythms of life in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The interactions we typically take for granted such as going to restaurants, spending time with friends, working out at the gym, and traveling on vacation have all been curtailed in an effort to tame the pandemic.
Client Relationships
Positioning yourself as a behavioral coach
While there is plenty of economic upside to the specialization required of modern life, one downside is that hyper-specialization can lead to siloed thinking. For a psychologist like me, the hammer that I have (an understanding of the power of behavior) can lead me to see behavioral “nails” everywhere, even in places where they may not truly exist.
Behavioral Finance
Win the day
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As a child, my father (himself a financial advisor) had a single obsession—paying off our house.
Behavioral Finance
Should I be worried? An investor litmus test
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As a child, I remember seeing my mother’s wooden plaque of The Serenity Prayer that she kept above our kitchen sink. For those not familiar with this popular prayer, it reads...