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Portfolio Construction Insights
EPISODE #2: USING PROBABILITIES TO AVOID THE LOSERS IN YOUR PORTFOLIO
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Probability plays a key role in many aspects of everyday life, yet many people fail to understand the math that guides it.
Portfolio Construction Insights
EPISODE #1: AN INTRO TO NEW AGE ALPHA
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There is a risk inside your portfolio that you are unaware of that leads to loss and you don’t get paid for taking it.
Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
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One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
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Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.
Market Outlooks
It's Not Much, But We'll Take It
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Excluding this awful pandemic, we think most market observers would cite inflation as the greatest risk to the economy and markets.
Market Outlooks
Omicron & The Fed Upend The Markets
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After a week away for the Thanksgiving holiday, we are happy to be taking pen to paper to share our thoughts on the economy and markets.
Market Outlooks
Thinking About Inflation and Rob Base (Effect)
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“It takes two to make a thing go right, it takes two to make it outta sight.” Some of us will remember dancing to “It Takes Two,” the massive ‘80s hit by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock.
Market Outlooks
Productivity, Profits, and Pay
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Despite the Delta variant of the coronavirus, supply chain bottlenecks, a spike in input prices, and a meaningful employer/employee mismatch, the US economy continues to power ahead.