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Manager & Investment Selection
MONEYBALL INVESTING: THE REAL REASON SWINGING FOR THE FENCES IS BAD FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
This piece is approved to use with clients.
One of the more iconic scenes in the movie, Moneyball, involves the baseball scouts discussing various players’ abilities. They note a player’s “classy” swing and then move on to his girlfriend’s looks for an assessment of his in-game proficiency. It’s both darkly humorous and a sly indictment of the flawed mechanics by which scouts judge players.
Investing Ideas
THE ARITHMETIC OF ASYMMETRY
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Anyone who has played a casual game of darts, say, at a bar or in the basement, knows an overarching rule of the game: it gets harder as it progresses. While rule systems vary, most games start with a wide-open board full of possibilities. But then, by the end, you’re aiming for the Double 18 and only the Double 18 to win. In short, it’s a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end.
Behavioral Finance
Regular Contributions Drive Wealth
Many investors wait until they have “enough” money or for when it’s “a good time” to invest in the market. Making regular contributions regardless of these concerns is one of the most powerful ways to build wealth.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioral Advisor: Investing Through the Headlines
After the year we have had its easy to understand how investors may have become fatigued and disoriented. Taking a step back and looking at things over a longer time period can help to regain a sense of balance and perspective. The ability to look past today’s headlines is key to long-term investing.
Market Outlooks
Behavioral Advisor: Don't Hesitate to Build Your Wealth
Investors often fret about the market environment and ask if they should invest now or hold off for a better time. For long-term investors, making regular contributions is more important than when the contributions are made each year.
Behavioral Finance
Behavioural Advisor: Does the Election Matter?
The presidential election has generated especially strong emotions this go-around. Both sides fear the other candidate will win and many believe that as a result the economy will go into a death spiral. This fear is driving many investors out of the market, waiting on the sidelines for the outcome. A look at past elections and market returns suggests they’ll be missing out.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Market Outlooks
Advisor Perspectives: CAPE is a Very Noisy Market Predictor
Analysts have many ways to estimate expected market returns. The challenge is to identify those few that provide usable information for making investment decisions. In this article, I discuss one of the common mistakes made in this type of analysis and why the cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE), developed by Robert Shiller, is not nearly as reliable a predictor of market returns as most claim it to be.
Market Outlooks
Behavioural Advisor: Beware Predictions and Magic Elixirs
The market and economy have gone through unprecedented events with a global pandemic, the shut-down of economies, massive government intervention and dramatic market swings.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.