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Market Outlooks
Settling in for the Long Haul
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As we settle into the second quarter of 2023, we reassess our projections for the remainder of the year and analyze how these implications will affect our outlook for recession risk, central banks’ pivoting away from restrictive monetary policy sooner than expected, and corporate earnings expectations.
Market Outlooks
2023: Our U.S. Teams Weigh In
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Tightening monetary policy drove rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and pressured equity valuations in 2022. While impossible to predict what 2023 has in store—especially because interest-rate changes can have a lagged effect on corporate earnings—we asked our U.S. equity teams to weigh in.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
China: Reopening Should Drive Growth
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After a year of anemic growth—by China’s standards—we expect a recovery in Chinese economic activity to gradually take place in 2023. The government has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and re-pivoted to growth, and the reopening, combined with a benign inflationary environment that gives China’s policymakers room to increase stimulus, we believe is a reason for optimism in 2023. That said, major policy questions and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.
Market Outlooks
Outlook 2023: Better Than Feared
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As we look out to 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its “neutral” monetary policy stance, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is not far behind. Europe has moved fast to secure fossil fuel supply away from Russia, even at higher—but stable—prices. U.S. consumer price inflation is moderating. Asynchronous reopening, with China’s consumers set to rejoin the post-COVID economy, is likely to mean more inflation volatility next year.
Market Outlooks
8 Reasons for Optimism in U.S. Stocks
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Around the world, economies are slowing, with some developed markets likely already in recession, thanks in no small part to tightening monetary policies. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States, where the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has moved more aggressively than in any other rate-rising period since the 1970s.
Investing Ideas
Finding Stocks with Staying Power: The Quality Dimension White Paper
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Quality in stocks can be measured in different ways. Yet the characteristics of resilient companies have something in common—they tend to underpin consistent, long-term equity return potential. Over the last decade, the MSCI World Quality Index returned 12.4% annualized, outperforming the MSCI World Index (Display 1). And during past market crises, quality stocks usually fell less than the broader market, a pattern that we’ve observed over longer time periods and in both US and global stock markets.