Is there a statistical relationship between fund flows and market price moves? Portfolio Manager Aneet Chachra evaluates and quantifies the linkage between equity fund flows and simultaneous price moves in the S&P 500® Index.

Capital markets haven’t been an easy road for investors to navigate in 2022, due to a bear market, red-hot inflation and rising correlations that have hampered diversification. Traditional safe havens for long-term investors have struggled too, with cash and Treasuries facing a rising-rate environment alongside historically high levels of market volatility. This uncertainty is one of the reasons behind what could be a record-breaking year in trading volume for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) due to their ability to provide investors with access to a wide variety of market sectors, attractive liquidity and low fees. In addition, many investors are using this vehicle for its tax-loss-harvesting properties as 2022 draws to a bumpy close. All of these benefits have led to a flurry of activity within ETF trading, with one sector in particular— actively managed ETFs—seeing a notable surge in popularity.

Just how good an indicator of future performance are earnings predictions? Portfolio Manager Aneet Chachra considers the historical value of forecasts, and questions whether investors can use them to help guide their investment decisions, as we look ahead to 2023.