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Market Outlooks
Settling in for the Long Haul
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As we settle into the second quarter of 2023, we reassess our projections for the remainder of the year and analyze how these implications will affect our outlook for recession risk, central banks’ pivoting away from restrictive monetary policy sooner than expected, and corporate earnings expectations.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
3 Points About China
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Clamping down on China has become a bipartisan effort in the United States, but I believe an outright conflict between China and Taiwan is a low-probability (albeit high-impact) event—and I remain constructive on the bottom-up, long-term investment opportunities in China, including the transition to a domestic-consumption-driven and lower-carbon economy.
Market Outlooks
Anatomy of a Recession Update: Soft Landing Head Fake or the Real McCoy?
ClearBridge Investments continue to believe a recession is more likely than a soft landing, given many of these data points are lagging or coincident in nature.
Market Outlooks
Anatomy of a Recession: Economic and Market Outlook Flyer - March 2023
ClearBridge Investments utilizes 12 different economic indicators to assess the risk of recession. Each individual indicator can signal expansion, caution or recession in the economy...
Market Outlooks
Anatomy of a Recession Update: Headwind, Not a Hurricane
While the housing market has been on the leading edge of the current downturn, the threat of higher interest rates will likely be somewhat muted as borrowers shift away from adjustable-rate mortgages.
Market Outlooks
2023: Our U.S. Teams Weigh In
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Tightening monetary policy drove rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and pressured equity valuations in 2022. While impossible to predict what 2023 has in store—especially because interest-rate changes can have a lagged effect on corporate earnings—we asked our U.S. equity teams to weigh in.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
China: Reopening Should Drive Growth
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After a year of anemic growth—by China’s standards—we expect a recovery in Chinese economic activity to gradually take place in 2023. The government has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and re-pivoted to growth, and the reopening, combined with a benign inflationary environment that gives China’s policymakers room to increase stimulus, we believe is a reason for optimism in 2023. That said, major policy questions and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.