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Market Outlooks
US equity outlook: Market breadth to dictate bullishness
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ClearBridge Investments expects market leadership to broaden in 2024 and believe high-quality defensive stocks will hold up better than the current mega cap leaders in an economic downturn.
Market Outlooks
AOR Update: The Fed is Done What's Next?
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Clearbridge Investments: With the market and FOMC suggesting the rate hike cycle is complete, the first interest rate cut could come by May 2024, a pause consistent with the Fed’s “higher for longer” messaging.
Market Outlooks
The Long View: The Crux
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ClearBridge Investments: The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.
Market Outlooks
The Long View: Who's Right?
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The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.
Market Outlooks
AOR Update: Labor market cracks emerging
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ClearBridge Investments: Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.
Market Outlooks
Anatomy of a Recession Update: The dominoes are falling
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ClearBridge Investments: The Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month, suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.
Behavioral Finance
Direct Indexing and the IKEA Effect
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The “IKEA effect” describes a cognitive bias that happens when people put in some form of labor to complete a project or finish a creation. Direct indexing won’t solve the behavior gap, but it has the potential to create better investor behaviors by allowing investors to play a larger role in the portfolio-building process.
Market Outlooks
Global Convictions: January 2023 Asset Class Research
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Heading into 2023, bearish sentiment among investors is coming off a very low base, with some of the worst recorded data since tracking started 35 years ago. With a contrarian lens, this could be a positive. However, while the overall valuation landscape has undoubtedly improved, there are many assets which remain around fair value. In such an environment, we continue to balance opportunities against risks.