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Market Outlooks
US equity outlook: Market breadth to dictate bullishness
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ClearBridge Investments expects market leadership to broaden in 2024 and believe high-quality defensive stocks will hold up better than the current mega cap leaders in an economic downturn.
Market Outlooks
AOR Update: The Fed is Done What's Next?
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Clearbridge Investments: With the market and FOMC suggesting the rate hike cycle is complete, the first interest rate cut could come by May 2024, a pause consistent with the Fed’s “higher for longer” messaging.
Market Outlooks
The Long View: The Crux
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ClearBridge Investments: The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.
Market Outlooks
The Long View: Who's Right?
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The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.
Market Outlooks
AOR Update: Labor market cracks emerging
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ClearBridge Investments: Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.
Market Outlooks
Anatomy of a Recession Update: The dominoes are falling
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ClearBridge Investments: The Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month, suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.
Behavioral Finance
Direct Indexing and the IKEA Effect
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The “IKEA effect” describes a cognitive bias that happens when people put in some form of labor to complete a project or finish a creation. Direct indexing won’t solve the behavior gap, but it has the potential to create better investor behaviors by allowing investors to play a larger role in the portfolio-building process.
Market Outlooks
Sleeping at Night? Consider Adding an Absolute Return Strategy
Perhaps the most concerning issue for multi-asset investors as we turn to 2023 is diversification—or the lack thereof in recent times. And while this is not the first time that the “traditional” correlation between U.S. Treasuries and equity markets has broken down—people tend to pay less attention when both are producing positive returns—it has been one of the worst years on record for the total return of a 60/40 portfolio in 2022.Herein lies the merits of discussing an absolute return approach with clients.