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Market Outlooks
Virus starts with v but ends with u-shaped
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2020 began largely as we expected from an economic perspective, but as the first quarter ended it was difficult even to remember what “normal” economic times looked like, that is, before COVID-19 mushroomed and became a global health crisis.
Before the situation deteriorated in late February, many economists expected the economic effects of the virus to be primarily felt in the first and second quarters with a “v-shaped” recovery to follow. Now many expect a “u-shaped” recovery occurring perhaps by year-end. Economic indicators can lag the headlines, but U.S. unemployment had already begun to spike as the first quarter ended with more to come, likely climbing to double digits as large segments of the economy remain shut down in an effort to contain the virus. We have seen second-quarter annualized GDP estimates ranging from -5% to -30%, but the unprecedented combination of a pandemic and the modern global economy makes this very difficult to call. The numbers will be painful, regardless of the precise magnitude. In terms of the human cost, the pain is already acute.
Market Outlooks
Corporate credit spreads widened aggressively in March 2020
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Credit markets have seen extreme repricing over the past month as a result of the market stress caused by coronavirus and its impact to the economy. The period through March 26 saw some of the most aggressive corporate spread widening in history, with the worst days experiencing almost twice as much widening as any day in 2008. Global investment grade corporate credit spreads reached 340 basis points after having started the year at 102, and we saw global high yield spreads widen past 1,000 basis points as an index, which is generally the level considered the threshold for individual bonds to be considered part of distressed indices.
Market Outlooks
Examining the relationship between social distancing and economic activity
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As the global spread of COVID-19 continues, the United States’ timeline to practice social distancing has now been extended through the end of April. The crisis continues to evolve, leading to questions of how long the social distance measures will remain, how severe will the infection rate get, and when will peak cases be reached. Gauging the length of these measures is crucial to anticipate the economic impacts to U.S. businesses and consumers.
Market Outlooks
The meaty realities of food production
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Initiatives such as Veganuary and meat-free Mondays are a sign of how patterns of food consumption are changing. People are increasingly aware that their eating habits can come with dramatic environmental and social costs. As investors, we are particularly interested in how companies are managing ESG risks in both their operations and supply chains, as well as whether they are seeking opportunities in high-growth areas such as vegan protein.
Market Outlooks
The state of the municipal market
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What caused the extreme municipal market volatility in March 2020? In a nutshell, fear and panic. But that’s understandable in the face of a virulent, deadly enemy that you can’t see and is difficult to contain without mass testing. The unknown is menacing, and investors reacted as they have historically — by raising cash and improving liquidity. In many ways, it is similar to the 2008-09 crisis when the bursting housing bubble caused an indiscriminate rush to sell any assets other than Treasuries. What was shocking this time was the unprecedented speed of the sell-off, and the ensuing recovery. Even after 30 years in the business, it was quite alarming.
Market Outlooks
Economic Data Reflects Shutdown, but Market Rallies
After one of the worst months and quarters in years, April saw a sharp rebound in equity markets as some of the worst-case COVID-19 scenarios did not materialize.
Market Outlooks
THE GREAT STAY-IN
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IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS
Market Outlooks
THE BOND BLUES
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The blues have hit the bond market, but we believe current dislocations can create opportunities for active managers of individual bond portfolios.
Market Outlooks
SUNDAY NIGHT SURPRISE
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In attempt to go all in, the Federal Reserve cut rates on Sunday night to the lower bound, 0-0.25% and announced a $700 billion Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
Market Outlooks
A PERFECT STORM: PANDEMIC, PETROLEUM AND POLITICS
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Stocks were hit hard yesterday as coronavirus fears spread, oil prices plummeted, and uncertainties on the political front continued to linger.
Market Outlooks
Coronavirus Fears Wash Away New Market Highs
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Coronavirus fears hit the markets as concerns mount that the virus is now accelerating outside of China with cases growing in South Korea, Italy, Iran, and the United States. Panic set in during Monday’s trading session with the major U.S. stock indices all down over 3% with more than 90% of total volume being to the downside, and the CBOE Volatility Index surging nearly 50%.