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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
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Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
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An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
U.S. presidential election outlook
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As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. We have outlined the policy implications of the three most likely election outcomes: a Democratic sweep, a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate and a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate. This analysis assumes that Democrats hold the House, which we believe is highly likely.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Biden goes the predictable route
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After a lengthy vetting process, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Though many names were floated in the past month, Harris has long been considered a favorite for the VP pick. Harris, a 2020 candidate for president herself, fits the bill as an experienced politician with liberal credentials and a knack for fundraising. In the past Biden spoke about the need to pick a VP who could lead the country if needed, and her experience in California state government and the U.S. Senate, as well as her national profile, make her a natural choice.
Investing Ideas
Beyond the Index – Equities: Finding Long-term Growth Amid Current Volatility
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Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Dr. Ghadir Cooper, discusses the impacts of COVID-19, the opportunity for companies capitalizing on structural growth trends from technology to demographics, and the integral role of ESG in fundamental analysis.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Is this the new normal?
Pyrford International provide a snapshot of the UK economy as it inches closer to Brexit.
Investing Ideas
Cluster Cities: A Chinese Experiment in the Future of Urbanisation
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China’s success in growing city clusters of previously unimaginable size is dependent on three key factors: continued rural-to-urban migration, planning that spans disparate administrative areas, and massive infrastructure investment.
Investing Ideas
Streaming Income - Financing the Internet of Things: Live from Barings 360
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In this episode of Streaming Income recorded live on stage at the Barings 360 Private Markets Conference, Dr. Christopher Smart discusses his latest white paper.
Investing Ideas
Streaming Income - Is There Style Drift in Middle Market Lending?
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Barings’ Ian Fowler weighs in on the supply/demand dynamics in the direct lending space and explains why looking at the middle market as one cohesive universe can be misleading.
Investing Ideas
Streaming Income - High Yield Bonds & Loans: Where to Next?
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High yield markets roared back in the first quarter. Can market fundamentals and technicals support continued strength? And how should investors factor in risks ranging from possible recession, to ratings downgrades, to liquidity concerns? Barings’ David Mihalick weighs in.
Investing Ideas
Streaming Income - Intangible Assets: A Source of Uncorrelated Income?
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In today’s information economy, intangible assets continue to grow in size and importance. Barings’ Jon Rotolo and David Jin discuss the role these assets are playing in diversified portfolios through a real-world example in the pharma royalty space.
Investing Ideas
Navigating Change in China
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Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Ghadir Cooper, assesses the transformation of China’s economy, and explains why investors should be encouraged by the country’s decisive policy actions.