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Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: A Pessimist's Guide to the Rest of the Year
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The base case is bright in spite of recent market jitters, but we’re watching 10 numbers that would signal a darker turn.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
The Big Battle Of 2021: Godzilla Vs Kong, Or The Market Vs The Fed?
Last week, as the stock market came under pressure, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified to Congress that the Fed could, and would, remain exceptionally accommodative on the monetary policy front.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Who Will Balance the Budgets?
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It’s not today’s problem, but it’s a question investors will start asking more often as the Republican Party confronts its identity crisis.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: How Will Europe Tackle the Biggest Question of the Year?
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Besides the rollout of vaccines that will save us from life inside four walls, we will know how governments want to handle the bill of the pandemic.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Seven Crucial Questions This Earnings Season Can Answer
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As investors strain to imagine the post-pandemic normal, a blurry vision is already coming into view.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Groundhog or Canary?
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The recent market gyrations look more like an entertaining sideshow, but it’s worth asking when they might be a signal of something worse.
Market Outlooks
If Demography is Destiny, Thank a Millennial
When markets obsess over the news of the day, such as GameStop and a short squeeze of epic proportion (more on that in a bit), the best thing we can do as long-term investors is take a step back and focus on what drives the stock market, and the economy, over time.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Best Way to Get a Car Out of a Ditch
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And how investors should judge the next round of government spending.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: An Investment Scorecard for the Biden Administration
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History will judge him on many dimensions, but what can investors reasonably expect that will improve the value of USA Inc.?
Market Outlooks
Kind of, pretty much, just about divided government
The S&P 500 Index is up an extraordinary 16% since election day – November 3, 2020.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: A Recipe for the Next Financial Crisis
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It may not come soon or deliver the same shock, but the ingredients that triggered so many predecessors are already coming into view.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: A Secret Plan for America’s New China Policy
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It’s based on the reviled and maligned Trans-Pacific Partnership, so don’t tell anyone.