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Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Recession indicators: Delayed, not dismissed
Quick takes on capital markets
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
May CPI report: Inflation deceleration paves the way for a policy pause in June
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However, core inflation is proving significantly stickier and remains above 5%...
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
June FOMC meeting: A very hawkish pause
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Market response.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Debt limit deal: The aftermath
With inflation remaining sticky and the labor market proving extremely resilient, a further policy rate hike is likely from here, while a rate cut this year is almost certainly not in the cards.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
MarketScape: U.S. Debt Ceiling Deal: Signs of Stability for Investors
While complications still may arise, we expect Congress to enact the debt ceiling agreement in time to avoid a potential default. Head of Global Macro for Global Fixed Income Antulio Bomfim, Ph.D., analyzes the market reaction to the deal and some risks that remain.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Reached the Peak?
After a 5% move in the Fed funds rate in just over a year, it appears that we may have finally reached the peak policy rate for this cycle in the U.S. – or perhaps more accurately, a plateau in rates.