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Policy and Regulatory Commentary
AAM CEO Scott Colyer | The Election and Interest Rate Outlook
The market outlook for 2020 is constantly in question with the combination of a COVID-19 induced recession and the 2020 election circuit coming to a head in November. Listen to AAM's CEO, Scott Colyer, as he mulls over his outlook for the election and how it will affect your portfolios and the interest rate.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
This piece is approved to use with clients.
An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
U.S. presidential election outlook
This piece is approved to use with clients.
As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. We have outlined the policy implications of the three most likely election outcomes: a Democratic sweep, a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate and a Trump presidency with a Republican Senate. This analysis assumes that Democrats hold the House, which we believe is highly likely.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Biden goes the predictable route
This piece is approved to use with clients.
After a lengthy vetting process, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Though many names were floated in the past month, Harris has long been considered a favorite for the VP pick. Harris, a 2020 candidate for president herself, fits the bill as an experienced politician with liberal credentials and a knack for fundraising. In the past Biden spoke about the need to pick a VP who could lead the country if needed, and her experience in California state government and the U.S. Senate, as well as her national profile, make her a natural choice.
Active/Passive Management
Advisor Perspectives: The Dawn of a New Active-Equity Era
Is the market environment turning favorable for active equity managers? It seems a strange question to ask in the midst of a pandemic and heightened market volatility, but history tells us that it is during just such turbulent times that active managers excel. There is accumulating evidence that market conditions are growing more attractive for showcasing stock-picking skills.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Is this the new normal?
Pyrford International provide a snapshot of the UK economy as it inches closer to Brexit.
Active/Passive Management
The Active Equity Renaissance: Behavioral Financial Markets
The analytical tools derived from behavioral finance’s more realistic representation of financial markets and human behavior will likely replace the wealth-limiting MPT tools in use today.
Active/Passive Management
The Active Equity Renaissance: New Frontiers of Risk
One modern portfolio theory (MPT) pillar that is unquestionably broken is the use of volatility, specifically standard deviation, as a measure of risk.
Active/Passive Management
The Active Equity Renaissance: The Rise and Fall of MPT
After the dust settles, virtually nothing of modern portfolio theory (MPT) will remain, asserts C. Thomas Howard and Jason Voss, CFA.
Active/Passive Management
The Active Equity Renaissance: Rejecting a Broken 1970's Model
If enough mandates are added, a potential positive alpha is transformed into an actual negative alpha. So what can be done to launch an active equity renaissance?