Traditional investment grade bond strategies are meant to help their owners sleep at night. But hidden credit and interest rate risks make benchmark-hugging more hazardous than many realize. Counterintuitively, CLOs, ABS and EM debt may be part of the solution.
Global stocks jumped as risks waned over coronavirus. Sanders, Buttigieg take their early lead into New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, led by 5-year maturities. Investors were optimistic over Chinese efforts to contain the coronavirus, along with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushing yields higher and prices down. Market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2020 fluctuated during the week, ending at approximately 1.5 cuts through the remainder of the year.
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, led by 5-year maturities. Investors were optimistic over Chinese efforts to contain the coronavirus, along with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushing yields higher and prices down.
In last week’s blog, I noted that what I would be following most closely that week was the release of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report, because it provides insight on what the Fed is thinking. On Friday, the Fed released this semi-annual report in advance of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before Congress on Feb. 11 and 12.
The ongoing coronavirus crisis dominated financial headlines last week, although investors also focused on the positives of continued solid corporate earnings, good economic data and the U.S. political backdrop. On balance, the good news won out last week, as equities rebounded following two weeks of more than -1% drops in the S&P 500 Index to rise 3.2%, the best weekly performance since last June.
As fear gives way to resolve and markets assess the potential economic impact of the coronavirus, a risk on mentality has taken hold with global equity markets taking back losses and global bond markets selling off in concert. While these fears are sometimes a bit irrational, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 12,000-61,000 Americans have died from influenza since 2010, there is no doubt we can all understand the underlying fear.
Market performance since early December has been a story of two phases: Emerging market (EM) equities had rallied and U.S. equities moved in line with global equities until the coronavirus outbreak in late January, reinforcing views in our 2020 Global Outlook.
Read the Weekly Market Snapshot to stay up-to-date with stock markets and sectors, bond market returns and financial news for the week.