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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: With apologies to the Dave Brubeck Quartet, here’s our “Take Five”
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Even casual fans of jazz – which we believe to be the great American art form – can easily recognize the opening cords to The Dave Brubeck Quartet’s classic, “Take Five.” Released in 1959 and penned by the quartet’s alto saxophonist Paul Desmond, “Take Five” was the first jazz single to sell one million copies and is the biggest selling jazz single of all time. So, with apologies to the great Dave Brubeck and The Dave Brubeck Quartet, here is our “Take Five,” or five things we think are worth thinking about as we move into the second half of 2020.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Trough Is In—Let The Healing Begin
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While there is still a long path to recovery, global June flash PMIs confirmed we have passed the trough as contraction eased. The U.S. Employment report will be released next week, and the pressure is on for Britain and Japan to come up with a deal.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Wire: It’s always darkest before the dawn
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It is one thing to understand we are living through an unprecedented, pandemic driven economic downturn, and all together another to learn the US unemployment rate is 14.7% and that 20.5 million of our fellow Americans lost their jobs in April.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Pick a letter, any letter
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We got our first look at Q1 Gross Domestic Product last week, and as expected, it wasn’t pretty. While the Q1 GDP number is subject to revision, it showed the economy contracted (4.8%) Q to Q.
Behavioral Finance
Win the day
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As a child, my father (himself a financial advisor) had a single obsession—paying off our house.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: How can oil be worth less than nothing?
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They say if you live long enough you really do see everything. Well, last week investors saw something they had never seen before – the price of a barrel of oil going for negative $37, at least based on the May 2020 futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Fixed Income Insights
CLOs: Volatility Continues, But Value Opportunities Emerge
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As macro volatility continued to pummel markets throughout the first quarter, CLOs felt the effects—with dramatic price moves among tranches as investors clamored for liquidity. But we believe that those who invest with an active manager and take a long-term view will benefit.
Fixed Income Insights
High Yield: Finding Value in a Landscape Rife with Risk
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Concerns surrounding COVID-19, lower oil prices and a global recession have weighed heavily on markets—including global high yield bonds and leveraged loans. While value opportunities are emerging, the landscape is punctuated with risks that must be carefully navigated.
Fixed Income Insights
Investment Grade Credit Markets Make an About-Face
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As investment grade markets pivot sharply, with spreads reaching their widest level in over a decade, investors turn disproportionately toward quality and liquidity.
Fixed Income Insights
Distressed Debt: Despite Challenges, Opportunities Persist
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Recent market and economic volatility may be the trigger that distressed debt investors have been waiting for, but capitalizing on opportunities will require a different playbook than those of past cycles.
Market Outlooks
A bear market bottom checklist
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A bear market bottom has historically been marked by several economic and market signposts, including depressed investor sentiment, widening credit spreads and a policy response to the systemic shock facing the country. More importantly, as we try to identify when . . .
Fixed Income Insights
Four Mistakes Investors Make in Private Credit
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Barings’ Jon Bock discusses the biggest mistakes investors make when allocating to private credit—and shares his views on why last cycle’s playbook won’t work this time around.