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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: 99 days until Election Day
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In 99 days, Americans will choose the next President of the United States. Presidential elections are weighty affairs, heavy with history and allegory, and they serve as a mirror to America – where we think we are, where we think we should be headed, and how we think we should get there.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The market’s wall of worry is daunting, but it’s got nothing on El Capitan
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As we tried these past few months to put a very unusual – and very stressful – market and economic environment in perspective, we leaned on a few bits of timeless Wall Street wisdom, including “Don’t Fight The Fed” and “Don’t Try To Time The Market,” which are ways of reminding ourselves monetary policy is an exceptionally powerful tool for spurring or slowing the economy, and drawdowns and volatility are part and parcel of investing.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Dr. Copper’s Prognosis
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When it comes to doctors, there are a lot. The list includes famous (real) ones like Jonas Salk, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Marie Curie; famous (fictional) ones like Dr. Evil, Meredith Grey, Marcus Welby; and famous doctors who really aren’t doctors but go by the title, including the late Jazz musician Dr. John and the great Julius “Dr. J” Erving (remember, Brinker Capital is a Philadelphia-based company).
Market Outlooks
Dr. Copper’s Prognosis
When it comes to doctors, there are a lot. The list includes famous (real) ones like Jonas Salk, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Marie Curie; famous (fictional) ones like Dr. Evil, Meredith Grey, Marcus Welby; and famous doctors who really aren’t . . .
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: With apologies to the Dave Brubeck Quartet, here’s our “Take Five”
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Even casual fans of jazz – which we believe to be the great American art form – can easily recognize the opening cords to The Dave Brubeck Quartet’s classic, “Take Five.” Released in 1959 and penned by the quartet’s alto saxophonist Paul Desmond, “Take Five” was the first jazz single to sell one million copies and is the biggest selling jazz single of all time. So, with apologies to the great Dave Brubeck and The Dave Brubeck Quartet, here is our “Take Five,” or five things we think are worth thinking about as we move into the second half of 2020.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Wire: It’s always darkest before the dawn
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It is one thing to understand we are living through an unprecedented, pandemic driven economic downturn, and all together another to learn the US unemployment rate is 14.7% and that 20.5 million of our fellow Americans lost their jobs in April.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Pick a letter, any letter
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We got our first look at Q1 Gross Domestic Product last week, and as expected, it wasn’t pretty. While the Q1 GDP number is subject to revision, it showed the economy contracted (4.8%) Q to Q.
Behavioral Finance
Win the day
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As a child, my father (himself a financial advisor) had a single obsession—paying off our house.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: How can oil be worth less than nothing?
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They say if you live long enough you really do see everything. Well, last week investors saw something they had never seen before – the price of a barrel of oil going for negative $37, at least based on the May 2020 futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Market Outlooks
A bear market bottom checklist
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A bear market bottom has historically been marked by several economic and market signposts, including depressed investor sentiment, widening credit spreads and a policy response to the systemic shock facing the country. More importantly, as we try to identify when . . .
Market Outlooks
A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
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Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer sentiment and spending, corporate profits, and the pricing of risk assets.