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Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: When it comes to the election, what is the market “pricing in?”
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Investors pay attention to the stock market not just because they are investing in it, but because they consider the market one of – if not the most – accurate of all leading indicators. Said differently, the market, in its infinite wisdom, will lead the real economy and will tell us where the world is headed.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Have we seen this movie before?
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Before we dive into the weekly wire there are two BIG disclaimers we need to address. First, we are not determining which political party bears responsibility for the state of fiscal stimulus negotiations.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Deal or No Deal?
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Several nations around the world await deals, whether it is another fiscal stimulus package or a trade agreement between the U.K. and EU. Global inflation data is likely to remain contained, and U.S. September retail sales are expected to post another modest rise.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: An unsettled world becomes more so
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An unsettled world – a pandemic, a contentious election, a strained political and cultural discourse, unrest in our streets – has become more so with news President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: The election, the markets, and the economy: you’ve got questions, we’ve got answers
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While (we hope) the Weekly Wire is timely, relevant, and entertaining, it also tends to be both a bit backwards looking—focused on analyzing and understanding a market or economic event that has happened—with the week’s narrative starting and ending on that particular page. Well, in this edition we are going in a different direction.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: What the election means for the market
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Equities have rallied, the economy is recovering, and we are learning to live with COVID-19, all of which is good news.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: Sometimes, it’s all about expectations
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Sometimes in life it’s not so much what you do, it’s what you do relative to what the world expects of you, like Lloyd Christmas in Dumb & Dumber, totally redeeming himself in the eyes of Harry Dunne when he trades their van “straight up, to a kid in town” for a moped that gets 70 MPGs.
Fixed Income Insights
The Evolving Opportunity in Distressed Debt
As the pandemic recedes, some companies may have a harder time managing higher debt levels than others—and as weaker issuers undergo restructurings or other stressed situations, there may be opportunities for investors to deploy more capital into distressed debt strategies.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Impact of COVID-19 on Commercial Real Estate Capital Markets
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While the Global Financial Crisis indiscriminately impacted volumes and pricing across commercial property types, the impact of the pandemic on capital markets, has been more selective, widening the gulf between “winner” and “loser” property types.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: It’s the final countdown…to the election
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As the 2020 Presidential election draws near, our attention instinctively turns to Europe – the Swedish pop-metal band, not the continent – and their mid-80s chart-topper, The Final Countdown.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: A Promising Update on the Vaccine we are All Waiting for
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We believe there is good reason to be optimistic. The global effort to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 has progressed at an incredible speed and is breathtaking when put in the context of vaccine development, which typically takes around a decade.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Macro Update: TikTok on the Clock, Now Don’t Let Fiscal Stimulus Stop
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TikTok may be the tip of the iceberg as the U.S. recommends tech companies remove Chinese apps from their app stores. Uncertainty around the next stimulus package may continue to weigh on consumer spending as we expect weaker data for July.