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Market Outlooks
Settling in for the Long Haul
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As we settle into the second quarter of 2023, we reassess our projections for the remainder of the year and analyze how these implications will affect our outlook for recession risk, central banks’ pivoting away from restrictive monetary policy sooner than expected, and corporate earnings expectations.
Market Outlooks
2023: Our U.S. Teams Weigh In
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Tightening monetary policy drove rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and pressured equity valuations in 2022. While impossible to predict what 2023 has in store—especially because interest-rate changes can have a lagged effect on corporate earnings—we asked our U.S. equity teams to weigh in.
Market Outlooks
Outlook 2023: Better Than Feared
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As we look out to 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its “neutral” monetary policy stance, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is not far behind. Europe has moved fast to secure fossil fuel supply away from Russia, even at higher—but stable—prices. U.S. consumer price inflation is moderating. Asynchronous reopening, with China’s consumers set to rejoin the post-COVID economy, is likely to mean more inflation volatility next year.
Market Outlooks
8 Reasons for Optimism in U.S. Stocks
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Around the world, economies are slowing, with some developed markets likely already in recession, thanks in no small part to tightening monetary policies. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States, where the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has moved more aggressively than in any other rate-rising period since the 1970s.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Wire: A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
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Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer sentiment and spending, corporate profits, and the pricing of risk assets.