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Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Globalization is Still Strong, but Changing
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Global integration has clearly not stopped, but it is changing. Even with the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains and rising U.S.-China tensions, investors should continue to count on a world that seems to be further integrating, rather than falling apart.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: No Stopping China’s Restocking
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FIFO gives China the global distribution edge across export sectors, even those that fell.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
With More Stimulus on the Horizon, Fed Expects a Strong Recovery in 2021
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The Federal Reserve in March raised its forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and employment, based on the $1.9 trillion in new stimulus signed into law and an accelerated vaccine rollout.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Coiled Spring
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Exceptional garden pinks and yellows mark the arrival of seasonal spring, but the world’s economic data outline a “coiled spring".
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Value or Values?
As investors increasingly seek strategies that both deliver returns and advance core values, asset managers have been testing different approaches.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The U.S. Grabs the Global Recovery Baton…
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Slow vaccination programs continue to delay the reopening of EU economies. The Fed showed that even with better growth and inflation outlooks, it remains committed to its accommodative stance. Elsewhere, China activity data so far this year shows the uneven recovery continues.
Fixed Income Insights
CLOs: A Bias Toward Quality
CLOs continued their rebound in the third quarter, but the potential for volatility going forward is high. In this environment, there may be benefits to moving up in quality.
Fixed Income Insights
High Yield: Halfway There?
The shock was the story in the first quarter, the stimulus was the story in the second—but we’re decidedly not yet in the post-COVID era, and the path to economic recovery remains unclear. What does that mean for high yield?
Fixed Income Insights
EMD: A Strong Tailwind, But Risks on the Horizon
Segments of the EM debt market have been bright spots in fixed income this year. Will EMs outperform DMs in the months ahead—or are the risks too great? It may come down to country and credit selection.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: Deal or No Deal?
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Several nations around the world await deals, whether it is another fiscal stimulus package or a trade agreement between the U.K. and EU. Global inflation data is likely to remain contained, and U.S. September retail sales are expected to post another modest rise.
Fixed Income Insights
The Evolving Opportunity in Distressed Debt
As the pandemic recedes, some companies may have a harder time managing higher debt levels than others—and as weaker issuers undergo restructurings or other stressed situations, there may be opportunities for investors to deploy more capital into distressed debt strategies.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Macro Update: The Impact of COVID-19 on Commercial Real Estate Capital Markets
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While the Global Financial Crisis indiscriminately impacted volumes and pricing across commercial property types, the impact of the pandemic on capital markets, has been more selective, widening the gulf between “winner” and “loser” property types.