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Market Outlooks
Omicron & The Fed Upend The Markets
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After a week away for the Thanksgiving holiday, we are happy to be taking pen to paper to share our thoughts on the economy and markets.
Market Outlooks
Thinking About Inflation and Rob Base (Effect)
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“It takes two to make a thing go right, it takes two to make it outta sight.” Some of us will remember dancing to “It Takes Two,” the massive ‘80s hit by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock.
Market Outlooks
Productivity, Profits, and Pay
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Despite the Delta variant of the coronavirus, supply chain bottlenecks, a spike in input prices, and a meaningful employer/employee mismatch, the US economy continues to power ahead.
Market Outlooks
Economic growth rebounds but government support expected to roll off
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The recovery continues to pick up speed, particularly in the US and the UK where both nations have successfully vaccinated a majority of the population. The International Monetary Policy (IMF) have raised global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts by 0.8% to 6% for 2021.
Market Outlooks
Transitory or sustained inflation?
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That is the question that continues to dominate markets. Central banks have been dogged in arguing the former. Richard Clarida of the Federal Reserve, for example, pointed to transitory factors such as base effects and supply chain bottlenecks that are behind the recent uptick in inflation.
Market Outlooks
Fiscal fails to disappoint
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Following the Democrats’ January win in the Georgia runoff election, we expected the Biden administration and Congress to move quickly on fiscal stimulus, though there were doubts as to whether the package would be as significant as the politicians promised.
Market Outlooks
Nobody Likes to Pay More for Stuff. So Why Does The Fed?
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Given the shutting down of the economy last year, and the subsequent collapse in demand and prices, the year-on-year comparisons into 2021 pretty much guaranteed a dramatic jump in prices as the economy reopened; stressed supply chains are adding to inflationary pressures.
Market Outlooks
Back to the future of fixed income, part 2: The search for more income
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In our original Back to the future of fixed income, we explored the value of and demand for income in an era of historically low government yields. For a sequel, we delve into an oft-maligned and misunderstood market segment: high yield. Described less generously as ‘junk’, we see a complex and evolving market segment, one that is essential in any conversation about income.
Market Outlooks
Forget The Fox…What Do The Dots Say?
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“What does the fox say?” got me thinking about last week’s Federal Reserve meeting and “What do the dots say?”
Market Outlooks
Don’t Call It A Comeback
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Despite a down day Friday, it was a good week for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with the index up more than 3% for the week.
Market Outlooks
Inflation: base effects versus spare capacity
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The prospect of inflation remains a hot topic for both investors and policy makers. Chair Powell, in his testimony to Congress this month stressed that ‘inflation risks are to the downside’. He stated that inflation in the coming months is likely to jump as a result of ‘base effects.’
Market Outlooks
Inflation: Much discussed but rarely witnessed
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Alongside the prospect for a strong economic recovery, a growing debate has sprung up around the path of inflation and whether it could derail growth.