report by BlackRock
Results for ""
Fixed Income Insights
December 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
News and Nuggets regarding the fixed income markets
Market Outlooks
Coronavirus vaccine developments are extremely welcome news
The global economy hailed a series of positive developments on the vaccine front at the start of the month. Pfizer-BioNTech were first to announce successful Phase 3 trials of their vaccine with 95% efficacy. The Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines also reported positive results. No vaccine has yet received regulatory approval for mass public use.
Fixed Income Insights
November 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In our view, while elections have consequences, the consequences are rarely as stark or as predictable as prognosticators suggest.
Market Outlooks
The stock market and the economy: Two different animals
This piece is approved to use with clients.
COVID-19 has cut a swathe through the world economy thanks to government mandated lock-downs and restrictions. No business closes its doors voluntarily and no individuals enjoy confinement to “barracks” for months on end. It is therefore essential that there is an appropriate reckoning when the pandemic passes.
Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
This piece is approved to use with clients.
Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
This piece is approved to use with clients.
The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
This piece is approved to use with clients.
On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Market Outlooks
The great disconnect between the economy and the stock market
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We concluded our March quarter Perspectives with the comment: “Let’s just hope we now don’t have a gigantic bounce in share prices fuelled by the central bank injections, pushing them back to bubble levels. Or, are we, once again, being naïve?” Yes, we were being naïve. The bounce occurred and it had nothing to do with investment fundamentals.
Fixed Income Insights
Fixed Income Market Update
This piece is approved to use with clients.
In our view, monetary and fiscal policy have done a tremendous job in papering over fundamental uncertainty. Read more for the news & nuggets
Fixed Income Insights
Municipal Fixed Income: Bluebirds fly
This piece is approved to use with clients.
We focus on the strong recovery in the muni market over the second quarter, which proved to be illuminating to municipal investors on a couple fronts.
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
Biden goes the predictable route
This piece is approved to use with clients.
After a lengthy vetting process, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden selected Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate for the 2020 presidential election. Though many names were floated in the past month, Harris has long been considered a favorite for the VP pick. Harris, a 2020 candidate for president herself, fits the bill as an experienced politician with liberal credentials and a knack for fundraising. In the past Biden spoke about the need to pick a VP who could lead the country if needed, and her experience in California state government and the U.S. Senate, as well as her national profile, make her a natural choice.