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Market Outlooks
It's Not Much, But We'll Take It
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Excluding this awful pandemic, we think most market observers would cite inflation as the greatest risk to the economy and markets.
Market Outlooks
Omicron & The Fed Upend The Markets
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After a week away for the Thanksgiving holiday, we are happy to be taking pen to paper to share our thoughts on the economy and markets.
Market Outlooks
Thinking About Inflation and Rob Base (Effect)
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“It takes two to make a thing go right, it takes two to make it outta sight.” Some of us will remember dancing to “It Takes Two,” the massive ‘80s hit by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock.
Market Outlooks
Productivity, Profits, and Pay
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Despite the Delta variant of the coronavirus, supply chain bottlenecks, a spike in input prices, and a meaningful employer/employee mismatch, the US economy continues to power ahead.
Market Outlooks
Economic growth rebounds but government support expected to roll off
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The recovery continues to pick up speed, particularly in the US and the UK where both nations have successfully vaccinated a majority of the population. The International Monetary Policy (IMF) have raised global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts by 0.8% to 6% for 2021.
Fixed Income Insights
June 2021 BMO Fixed Income Market Update
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U.S. GDP estimates released in May showed the economy grew 6.4% in the first quarter, unchanged from the prior estimate and modestly below expectations.
Market Outlooks
Transitory or sustained inflation?
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That is the question that continues to dominate markets. Central banks have been dogged in arguing the former. Richard Clarida of the Federal Reserve, for example, pointed to transitory factors such as base effects and supply chain bottlenecks that are behind the recent uptick in inflation.
Market Outlooks
Fiscal fails to disappoint
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Following the Democrats’ January win in the Georgia runoff election, we expected the Biden administration and Congress to move quickly on fiscal stimulus, though there were doubts as to whether the package would be as significant as the politicians promised.
Market Outlooks
Nobody Likes to Pay More for Stuff. So Why Does The Fed?
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Given the shutting down of the economy last year, and the subsequent collapse in demand and prices, the year-on-year comparisons into 2021 pretty much guaranteed a dramatic jump in prices as the economy reopened; stressed supply chains are adding to inflationary pressures.
Fixed Income Insights
April 2021 Fixed Income Market Update
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We continue to observe demand for income-generating assets with additional relative value opportunities across the sector, quality and security levels.
Market Outlooks
Back to the future of fixed income, part 2: The search for more income
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In our original Back to the future of fixed income, we explored the value of and demand for income in an era of historically low government yields. For a sequel, we delve into an oft-maligned and misunderstood market segment: high yield. Described less generously as ‘junk’, we see a complex and evolving market segment, one that is essential in any conversation about income.
Fixed Income Insights
Beware the ides of March
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As the first quarter draws to a close, investors should be mindful of the seasonal weakness typically seen with municipal bonds (munis) at this time of year. This seasonality is due to a confluence of factors, including an uptick in supply (versus a lack of), fewer maturing bonds and lower coupon payments – and a potential pause in industry flows as a result of investors paying their tax bills in April.