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AAM Viewpoints: A dive into 2020 Fixed Income Markets & what they tell us for 2021
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The unfolding of diverse and largely unseen set of events in 2020 make it difficult to select only a few that we feel represent the tenor of the fixed income markets and the broad economy within this commentary. Clearly, the migration back into risk assets beginning in Q2 (the 2nd quarter) continued through Q4 2020 buttressed by what we think can be four primary causes:
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Let’s party like it’s 1999!
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As the calendar changed from 2020 to 2021, I can’t help but find an environment that is truly surreal. We have a raging global pandemic on our hands that is getting markedly worse on a day-by-day basis, we have vaccines that are sitting in warehouses being administered at one-tenth the rate that is necessary to accomplish the task at hand and we have millions without a job with difficult prospects of getting one in the near future.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Equity market side effects of the covid-19 vaccine
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The 337 days spanning the World Health Organization’s announcement of COVID-19 to the FDA approval of the first vaccine the world witnessed many social, economic, and scientific events few thought possible.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Light at the end of the tunnel
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The year 2020 and the start of 2021 will be burned into the collective consciousness for quite some time for a myriad of reasons and given this we probably shouldn’t rehash every headline here. However, from an investment standpoint we can summarize 2020 very simply as:
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AAM Viewpoints: The pivot point for 2021
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In a year filled with a cacophony of conflicting messages and each one portrayed as the real black swan event to change the world, it seems overly provincial to narrow the next year down to one metric. However, when this metric is and has been highly disregarded as a material issue anymore, it seems those events approach a level of blind spot that transforms markets.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – Our generational opportunity call on commodities remains intact
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In January of this year we published my Viewpoints article, “Generational Opportunity Now for the Next Decade?” The article was a contrarian call on the prices of commodities and outlined what we felt was a very significant price apex and the opportunities that created. Our “big call” for 2020 was a historically compelling opportunity to over allocate to commodities (which we framed as Metals, Materials, Agriculture and Energy) in portfolios.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Election head fakes & virus bright spots
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As we approach the end of the year it is probably safe to say that few if any have ever experienced a year like 2020. The municipal market also experienced a year like no other with the only recent parallel being – at certain times during the year – the 2008 financial crisis.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Unusual market has historical fortitude
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Stating the obvious, 2020 has not been a business-as-usual kind of year. Within months of its start it became a “year interrupted” by the global outbreak of COVID-19. That alone presented a massive challenge for the economy and potentially set a lasting course change for how business and daily life might be conducted for months and possibly years to come.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – The election results are in, but what about equity returns?
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No “hanging chad” this year, but definitely lots of drama and a bit of a delay which of course seems par for the course given the year 2020 has been so far. Currently it looks like the election results point to a victory for former Vice President Joe Biden, but this of course is barring any reversals after recounts in states with close margins and any substantive legal issues.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Time is an investor’s greatest asset
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The New York Stock Exchange was founded over two centuries ago, in 1792. Since its founding, it has faced a plethora of destructive events: The Napoleonic Wars, U.S. Civil War, WWI, The Spanish Flu, The Great Depression, WWII, The Cold War, Korean War, Vietnam war, Gulf Wars, Great Recession, and now the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Be Ready to Lock-in Yields When The Opportunity Arises
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As the election approaches, market participants are being more cautious about their investment decisions. While there are a lot of market-centric reasons for this approach, there are as many non-market related ones as well.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Can Dividends Help Find A Balance?
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Dividend-paying equities are a cornerstone for many investors. Like many things, 2020 has proven difficult for this segment of the market as returns have been concentrated in other areas and dividend payments have come under pressure.