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Fixed Income Insights
“No Jules, It’s High-Yield Bonds”
If you think back on Wall Street in the ‘80s, a few things come to mind: the ‘87 Crash (the S&P 500 was up that year), a secular bull market, interest rates in the teens, the movie Wall Street, corporate raiders and junk bonds.
Market Outlooks
If Demography is Destiny, Thank a Millennial
When markets obsess over the news of the day, such as GameStop and a short squeeze of epic proportion (more on that in a bit), the best thing we can do as long-term investors is take a step back and focus on what drives the stock market, and the economy, over time.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: A dive into 2020 Fixed Income Markets & what they tell us for 2021
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The unfolding of diverse and largely unseen set of events in 2020 make it difficult to select only a few that we feel represent the tenor of the fixed income markets and the broad economy within this commentary. Clearly, the migration back into risk assets beginning in Q2 (the 2nd quarter) continued through Q4 2020 buttressed by what we think can be four primary causes:
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Let’s party like it’s 1999!
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As the calendar changed from 2020 to 2021, I can’t help but find an environment that is truly surreal. We have a raging global pandemic on our hands that is getting markedly worse on a day-by-day basis, we have vaccines that are sitting in warehouses being administered at one-tenth the rate that is necessary to accomplish the task at hand and we have millions without a job with difficult prospects of getting one in the near future.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Equity market side effects of the covid-19 vaccine
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The 337 days spanning the World Health Organization’s announcement of COVID-19 to the FDA approval of the first vaccine the world witnessed many social, economic, and scientific events few thought possible.
Market Outlooks
Kind of, pretty much, just about divided government
The S&P 500 Index is up an extraordinary 16% since election day – November 3, 2020.
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: Light at the end of the tunnel
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The year 2020 and the start of 2021 will be burned into the collective consciousness for quite some time for a myriad of reasons and given this we probably shouldn’t rehash every headline here. However, from an investment standpoint we can summarize 2020 very simply as:
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints: The pivot point for 2021
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In a year filled with a cacophony of conflicting messages and each one portrayed as the real black swan event to change the world, it seems overly provincial to narrow the next year down to one metric. However, when this metric is and has been highly disregarded as a material issue anymore, it seems those events approach a level of blind spot that transforms markets.
Market Outlooks
To paraphrase Yogi Berra, what can we observe by watching gold and copper?
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The late, great Yogi Berra, in addition to winning 10 World Series with the New York Yankees, was the creator of numerous classic malapropisms, including, “You can observe a lot by just watching.”
Market Outlooks
AAM Viewpoints – Our generational opportunity call on commodities remains intact
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In January of this year we published my Viewpoints article, “Generational Opportunity Now for the Next Decade?” The article was a contrarian call on the prices of commodities and outlined what we felt was a very significant price apex and the opportunities that created. Our “big call” for 2020 was a historically compelling opportunity to over allocate to commodities (which we framed as Metals, Materials, Agriculture and Energy) in portfolios.
Market Outlooks
In a big November, small caps come up REALLY BIG
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As we take pen to paper for this Weekly Wire we have one trading day left in November, and what a November it has been for our country, our economy, and our stock market:
Market Outlooks
Considering the long-term economic consequences of COVID-19
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COVID-19 is first and foremost a healthcare crisis, and its impact on the world has been devastating. That said, as investors, we must try to determine the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic.