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Behavioral Finance
Behavioural Advisor: Does the Election Matter?
The presidential election has generated especially strong emotions this go-around. Both sides fear the other candidate will win and many believe that as a result the economy will go into a death spiral. This fear is driving many investors out of the market, waiting on the sidelines for the outcome. A look at past elections and market returns suggests they’ll be missing out.
Market Outlooks
October Market Insight Call
In case you missed it, check out the replay of September's Market Insight Call! Michael Gates and Tushar Yadava from BlackRock gave their thoughts on the markets and shared what they're keeping an eye on as we head into the elections.
Market Outlooks
The stock market and the economy: Two different animals
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COVID-19 has cut a swathe through the world economy thanks to government mandated lock-downs and restrictions. No business closes its doors voluntarily and no individuals enjoy confinement to “barracks” for months on end. It is therefore essential that there is an appropriate reckoning when the pandemic passes.
Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
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Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Market Outlooks
September Market Insight Call
In case you missed it, check out the replay of September's Market Insight Call! Brandon Thomas, Chief Investment Officer of Envestnet, gave his update on the current state of the economy and also a preview on what investors can expect as the upcoming presidential election is just around the corner.
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
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The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
Behavioral Advisor: Your Investments are Non-Partisan
With the election year fury reaching its apex, it is easy to believe that political outcomes in November will have a significant impact on your investments.
Market Outlooks
August Market Insight Call
Amazingly, it already has been five months since a large share of the global economy was mandated to a near-subsistence crawl. How much longer until we are back on our feet? Of course, we know that day will come—eventually— but, for the moment, we seem to be in an almost suspended state. Hear Nick Bohnsack, President and COO of Strategas give his thoughts on the markets and answer a few questions as well!