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Fixed Income Insights
December 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
News and Nuggets regarding the fixed income markets
Market Outlooks
Coronavirus vaccine developments are extremely welcome news
The global economy hailed a series of positive developments on the vaccine front at the start of the month. Pfizer-BioNTech were first to announce successful Phase 3 trials of their vaccine with 95% efficacy. The Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines also reported positive results. No vaccine has yet received regulatory approval for mass public use.
Fixed Income Insights
November 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while elections have consequences, the consequences are rarely as stark or as predictable as prognosticators suggest.
Market Outlooks
The stock market and the economy: Two different animals
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COVID-19 has cut a swathe through the world economy thanks to government mandated lock-downs and restrictions. No business closes its doors voluntarily and no individuals enjoy confinement to “barracks” for months on end. It is therefore essential that there is an appropriate reckoning when the pandemic passes.
Market Outlooks
The Fed’s new framework and its evolving reaction function
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Amid an accelerating election season, ongoing pandemic and a return to partisan gridlock, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been a bit less prominent in the news cycle lately. However, at the central bank’s annual August retreat in Jackson Hole, Chairman Jerome Powell announced amendments to the Fed’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which had been largely unchanged since 2012. At a recent mini-forum on this topic, we discussed the significance of this change and its implications for future Fed policy and for investors.
Fixed Income Insights
October Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.
Market Outlooks
Turning up the heat on a boiling pot
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The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has created a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court with only weeks until the November election. As the country awaits President Trump’s nominee, pundits on both sides of the aisle are claiming this process will strengthen their election chances. We see this process as primarily exacerbating the partisanship of U.S. voters and it is unclear which party will able to drive greater voter turnout or sway more independents
Fixed Income Insights
Interest rates: Lower for longer...or forever?
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On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.
Market Outlooks
The great disconnect between the economy and the stock market
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We concluded our March quarter Perspectives with the comment: “Let’s just hope we now don’t have a gigantic bounce in share prices fuelled by the central bank injections, pushing them back to bubble levels. Or, are we, once again, being naïve?” Yes, we were being naïve. The bounce occurred and it had nothing to do with investment fundamentals.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
COVID-19 isn’t going away
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Colossal policy responses in the second quarter reassured investors that the U.S. economy can weather the COVID-19 downturn, with a relatively quick return to risk assets pushing the S&P 500® up 20.5% for the period, its best quarter since 1998. After bottoming in March, U.S. stocks rose as much as 44% before the rally stalled a bit over the last few weeks of the quarter. We saw a few signs of hesitation for more policy among lawmakers as indicators improved, but overall both Congress and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain prepared to do more.
Policy and Regulatory Commentary
The U.S.-China relationship in a changing global economy
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An inevitable blame game between the U.S. and China has followed COVID-19, but the crisis has really just extended the “trust deficit” that has been steadily building between the two countries in recent years. Though the “Phase One” agreement between the countries remains intact, it is very fragile and China is turning to a more domestic focus. The U.S.-China relationship, however, remains pivotal for the global economy, and in our mini-forum devoted to the topic, we began with a discussion of the relationship from China’s perspective.
Fixed Income Insights
Fixed Income Market Update
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In our view, monetary and fiscal policy have done a tremendous job in papering over fundamental uncertainty. Read more for the news & nuggets