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Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Small stands tall in the face of inflation
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Bigger isn’t always better. U.S. small cap equities underperformed their large cap counterparts by nearly 10 percentage points in 2023, causing the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the small cap Russell 2000 Index versus the large cap Russell 100 Index to hover near its lowest level since December 2001 (Figure 2).
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Japan stocks: high can go higher
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We believe Japan’s equity rally has room to run – unlike some past false starts. We think both the macro outlook and company-level developments will drive the next leg.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields rise as inflation data climb
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U.S. Treasury yields moved higher again last week as inflation moderated less than expected.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: With inflation warm, consider infrastructure investments
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Last week’s market pullback served as a reminder of just how fragile the current bull market has been since it has been built largely on overly dovish expectations for monetary policy and interest rates.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Strategic reasons to get active
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U.S. stocks recovered after a hit from strong inflation data last week, highlighting one data point won’t disrupt buoyant risk appetite. We’re tactically overweight U.S. stocks as we think market optimism can persist for now.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Economic data push Treasury yields higher
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U.S. Treasury yields moved higher last week, as strong U.S. economic data and hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve rhetoric caused markets to push back expectations for rate cuts.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Magnificent munis
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U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the curve in 2024, with the 10-year yield now more than 4%. Anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, we forecast the 10-year yield to end 2024 at around 3.50%.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Staying selective in emerging markets
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We see broader support for emerging markets (EMs) given the market’s upbeat sentiment on risk assets as U.S. growth holds up, inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to cut policy rates. EMs have been resilient to the latest Fed rate hikes.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields decline despite a hawkish Fed
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U.S. Treasury yields rallied last week. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in March is unlikely, and surprisingly strong U.S. employment data served as a second blow for fixed income investors hoping for early rate cuts.
Market Outlooks
Weekly Investment Commentary: Real estate beckons as rate hopes waver
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Aggressive central bank rate-hiking policies have taken a toll on private real estate markets since late 2022.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Earnings unlikely to spoil stock rally
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U.S. Q4 corporate earnings season is in full swing. We don’t see it spoiling upbeat risk appetite for now. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week as most top tech firms beat high earnings expectations.
Fixed Income Insights
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary: Treasury yields mixed on strong economic data
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U.S. Treasury yields were mixed last week and spread sectors outperformed as fourth quarter U.S. GDP exceeded expectations.