Weekly Investment Commentary: Markets need better economic and trade news to keep rising
Highlights
- Fueled by the consumer sector, the global economy has stabilized and the outlook appears brighter today than it did one year ago.
- Trade issues, however, represent a significant threat and could potentially derail equity markets.
- We remain constructive toward stocks heading into 2020, but are concerned that valuations already reflect high levels of optimism.
Since the summer, investors have grown significantly less pessimistic about the global economy and financial markets. Stock prices have been rising as investors have been moving money into equities. In contrast to conditions a few months ago, financial markets now appear priced for a much better economic environment, and investors are anticipating more progress on a U.S./China trade deal. We think the macro environment is solid enough to sustain the current risk-on trade, but we are increasingly concerned that stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves.
Economic growth has been stabilizing (for the most part)
The global economic environment seems to be healthier than it was a year ago. Notably, we see evidence of more solid growth around the world, and not just in the U.S. as was the case through much of 2018. The consumer sector in particular has been quite strong and has propelled the broader economy.
One year ago, investors were highly worried about a global recession, but those risks appear to have faded. In fact, if anything, we think investors may have grown too optimistic over prospects for stronger growth, as reflected by rising stock prices. We think risks remain, especially regarding the manufacturing sector and global trade levels. We don’t think it will happen, but weak manufacturing and trade could act as a drag and significantly slow down global economic momentum. We think it is more likely that the strong consumer and service sectors could help provide a lift to manufacturing data. But so far evidence of that scenario has been scant.
Trade woes represent a significant risk
The main culprit behind any economic weakness continues to be the rise in protectionism and broad trade policy uncertainty. Trade issues have clearly hurt global manufacturing levels, caused a downshift in business sentiment and depressed capital expenditure spending. If protectionism persists and new tariffs continue to be enacted, this damage could deepen.
We see some glimmers of hope, however. While the latest rounds of negotiations over the U.S./China phase one trade deal have stalled, we think prospects remain for a limited agreement and new tariffs could likely be delayed. Even as tariffs have been in place and as economic data from the eurozone has been spotty, Chinese export levels have been picking up, which is a critically important indicator of broader global trade levels. It is too early to say whether this improvement is a harbinger of better things to come, but it is clearly an optimistic signal.
At present, equity prices reflect a better trade environment, and we hope those signals are correct. A reduction in tariff levels (or even an easing in trade tensions and more clarity around future policy) would be bullish for stocks. If corporate management teams had a better sense of where trade issues were heading, they would be more willing to invest in their businesses, which would be a positive for corporate earnings and profits.
Monetary policy may have run out of steam
Part of the reason we have a cautious outlook toward the economy and global financial markets is that monetary policy may have exhausted its ability to provide a tailwind for stocks. Global monetary policy remains extremely accommodative, but central banks, including the Federal Reserve, now appear in a holding pattern.
The drop in interest rates over the course of 2019 has been a positive for stock markets. But at this point, we have a hard time seeing additional cuts without also seeing notable economic weakness. And such weakness would be a negative for stocks and would probably outweigh any additional benefits arising from even lower rates.
In contrast, if economic growth does pick up (perhaps due to better news on the trade front), policymakers will come under increasing pressure to once again raise interest rates. We don’t see that happening in the near term given how cautious central bankers have been, but monetary policy is less clear now than it was earlier in the year.
This is particularly true given the current monetary policy backdrop. Conditions remain extremely accommodative and equity friendly, but the Federal Reserve seems unlikely to push interest rates any lower, unless it sees fresh evidence of economic weakness. And such evidence would be a bearish sign for stocks.
We remain mildly constructive toward stocks
We are hopeful that a modest improvement in economic growth will take hold, and we see prospects for better trade conditions from here. A slow recovery in manufacturing and trade would probably cause interest rates to rise modestly, but not to the point that rising rates would damage equity markets. At the same time, corporate profits could grind slowly higher in 2020. All told, such an environment causes us to be mildly constructive toward stocks.
The risks, however, appear skewed to the downside. The problem is those risks are more about political issues and policy decisions rather than economic fundamentals. Politics and policy mistakes are much harder to handicap than issues such as economic weakness or credit fundamentals, making them particularly tough to plan for.
Additionally, we think that valuations for equities and other risk assets have gotten full over the past few months. At this point, most of the good news appears already baked into prices. That means that economic growth and trade clarity will need to deliver in order for prices to continue moving higher.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance approximately 2,000 small cap companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which is made up of 3,000 of the biggest U.S. stocks. Euro Stoxx 50 is an index of 50 of the largest and most liquid stocks of companies in the eurozone. FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index (DAX Index) is a total return index of 30 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Nikkei 225 Index is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market. The BofA Merrill Lynch 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index is an unmanaged market index of U.S. Treasury securities maturing in 90 days that assumes reinvestment of all income.
Risks and other important considerations
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of writing and may change at any time based on market or other conditions and may not come to pass. This material is not intended to be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations, does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific person. All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Non-investment-grade bonds involve heightened credit risk, liquidity risk, and potential for default. Foreign investing involves additional risks, including currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
Nuveen Asset Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and an investment specialist of Nuveen, LLC.