Moments ago, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), flanked by the chairs of the committees of jurisdiction over the House’s impeachment inquiry over the last several months (Oversight, Intelligence, Ways and Means, Financial Services, and Judiciary) announced her intention to have the House consider two articles of impeachment against President Trump. I thought I’d provide a quick primer on what’s happened this morning and what we can expect in the days and weeks ahead.
We see a big shift in the macro environment in the year ahead – as the dovish monetary policy pivot of 2019 fades as a market driver. We detail these views in our 2020 Global outlook.
In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been trade tensions and central bank easing, in our view. We were early to see that a protectionist push would hurt the industrial cycle and business investment — a key reason for our global growth downgrade. And we were correct to say that government bonds would play a crucial role as ballast during equity sell-offs even at low yields. But we did not see such a strong and persistent flight to safety and the unusual synchronized easing pivot from central banks at this advanced stage in the expansion.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg officially entered the Democratic presidential primary last week, and it didn’t take long for his opponents to react. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) criticized the fact that Bloomberg, who is worth an estimated $54 billion, plans to self-finance his campaign.
Monetary policy may have reached its limit in stoking growth and interest rates in some developed markets are nearing the lowest levels that central banks can feasibly set. This forces a rethink of the strategic role of government bonds in portfolios.
Envestnet is excited to announce our partnership with Eversheds Sutherland. As a global top 15 law practice, Eversheds Sutherland provides the legal advice and strategic alignment that clients need from their advisors for the best outcomes. The new SEC advice standards for broker-dealers and registered investment advisors are here, and we are dedicated to helping you prepare for the compliance impact.
Despite President Donald Trump’s pleas for the whistleblower’s identity to be revealed – and his demand that he be given the opportunity to “interview” them – it should come as little surprise that it has largely remained under wraps. As PBS Newshour recently reported, while there is “nothing that can block Trump from revealing who” the whistleblower is, federal law is meant to prevent “intimidation of witnesses and reprisals against whistleblowers.” The president, of course, is tasked with enforcing these, and all, laws as the leader of the executive branch.
The equity market has played an early role in sustainable investing, while bond markets have lagged in data, tools and insights. But that’s changing fast, as we detail in a new publication: Sustainability: the bond that endures. New ESG indexes have created building blocks that can be used to bring sustainability into the core of portfolios, even in asset classes such as emerging market (EM) debt that until recently lacked sustainable solutions.
If you think a potential federal government shutdown is the only potential calamity barreling down on Washington, D.C., think again.
Two key themes have driven financial markets in 2019: the drag on economic activity and risk assets from trade tensions (our “protectionist push” theme); and a dovish pivot by central banks that has supported the expansion (“stretching the cycle”). What lies ahead? We believe these two market drivers may be testing limits over the next year.
It has been a difficult year for major tech companies. To demonstrate, consider what the news and polling firm Morning Consult wrote in June 2017: Google and Facebook “are enjoying high favorability ratings among U.S. consumers …”
Global central banks have delivered an unusual late-cycle dovish pivot this year – to extend an already-long economic expansion. The Fed’s rate cut last week was the latest installment of this dovish push.