In our view, while elections have consequences, the consequences are rarely as stark or as predictable as prognosticators suggest.

In our view, while economic data has been generally improving, higher frequency data such as elevated jobless claims and small business employment highlight the risk that the recovery could stall absent additional fiscal stimulus. Given tensions and political posturing entering the last stages of election season, short-term we believe risk premiums should be higher on the margin until resolution of the election.

On September 16, 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates near zero and signaled that it expects to hold them there through at least 2023, adding outcome based guidance. The statement follows the new long-term policy framework announced by Chair Jay Powell in August at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The Fed notes that rates will remain near zero “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.” We didn’t get a precise definition of what a moderate overshoot would look like, allowing the Fed to retain some flexibility.