Markets are increasingly reflecting a unified Democratic government outcome that may lead to a significant fiscal expansion. This electoral outcome would bring forward the market pricing of the higher inflation regime that we were already reflecting in our strategic asset views.
Many companies may need to turn to private credit to restructure post-Covid. We see potential for such investments to serve as growth assets and diversifiers when new sources of portfolio resilience are needed.
We zero in on the UK this week to highlight the three main signposts we use to assess the impact of the coronavirus: the pace of the economic restart, the state of policy support and evidence of permanent economic damage.
The potential outcomes of the November U.S. election could have starkly different policy ramifications, as we argued last week.
The U.S. election is taking place against a historic backdrop of a pandemic, recession and domestic strife. The outcome could have significant implications for key policy areas: fiscal stimulus, public investment, taxation, regulation and foreign affairs.
We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets.
The broad macro backdrop has been improving, risk assets have rallied a long way, and increasing market volatility points to risks that investors will need to navigate as the U.S. presidential election draws closer.
Markets have rallied sharply from their virus lows, driven by the policy revolution and economic restart.
The pandemic has sped up key structural trends and triggered substantial market swings, precipitating an urgent need to rethink strategic asset allocations.