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Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why we stay risk-on in the short term
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Central bank activity last week gave markets the thumbs up to stay upbeat. That keeps us pro-risk in our six- to 12-month tactical views as Q2 starts.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: U.S. & Japan: a tale of two overweights
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Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BOJ) meetings this week and recent data put a spotlight on the U.S. and Japanese macro environments. U.S. markets are pricing in a positive macro backdrop as inflation cools.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Low-carbon transition themes in 2024
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The low-carbon transition is a mega force we track that is shaping investment returns now. We see potentially market-moving developments in three key areas this year.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Taking selective risk in credit
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Getting granular and being nimble to seize opportunities in the new regime are key lessons guiding us.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Japan stocks: high can go higher
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We believe Japan’s equity rally has room to run – unlike some past false starts. We think both the macro outlook and company-level developments will drive the next leg.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Strategic reasons to get active
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U.S. stocks recovered after a hit from strong inflation data last week, highlighting one data point won’t disrupt buoyant risk appetite. We’re tactically overweight U.S. stocks as we think market optimism can persist for now.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Staying selective in emerging markets
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We see broader support for emerging markets (EMs) given the market’s upbeat sentiment on risk assets as U.S. growth holds up, inflation cools and the Federal Reserve prepares to cut policy rates. EMs have been resilient to the latest Fed rate hikes.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Earnings unlikely to spoil stock rally
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U.S. Q4 corporate earnings season is in full swing. We don’t see it spoiling upbeat risk appetite for now. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week as most top tech firms beat high earnings expectations.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Upgrading our broad U.S. stocks view
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Excitement over artificial intelligence (AI) spurred a rally in U.S. tech stocks that buoyed the market in 2023. We’ve said the rally can run for now – and broaden out.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Geopolitical fragmentation plays out
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Geopolitical fragmentation, one of five mega forces or structural shifts we track, is playing out in recent events in Asia and the Middle East. Yemen’s Houthi militants attacking Red Sea shipping highlights how hot spots can hit supply chains and up production costs.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Why stocks can stay upbeat, for now
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Equity markets – and even the Federal Reserve – have largely embraced the soft landing narrative that inflation will fall to the Fed’s 2% target without a recession.
Market Outlooks
Global Weekly Commentary: Navigating macro currents in 2024
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Risk assets ended 2023 on an upbeat note as the Fed appeared to make a big bet on inflation coming down and growth only gradually slowing. Markets interpreted the Fed's messaging as a green light for aggressive policy easing.