If you think a potential federal government shutdown is the only potential calamity barreling down on Washington, D.C., think again.
The short-term drivers of market performance are not always clear, but an improving outlook towards economic growth seems to be a clear contributor to the recent equity rally. Chief Investment Strategist Jim McDonald explains how we are positioning out portfolios in this environment.
Two key themes have driven financial markets in 2019: the drag on economic activity and risk assets from trade tensions (our “protectionist push” theme); and a dovish pivot by central banks that has supported the expansion (“stretching the cycle”). What lies ahead? We believe these two market drivers may be testing limits over the next year.
Equity markets rose again last week, as investors continued to focus on the positives. The possibility of more progress on the trade front, improved manufacturing readings, decent third-quarter earnings results and accelerating corporate deal activity all helped stocks to rise for a fifth straight week.
Many investors think of municipal bonds for tax-efficient income, often overlooking the potentially higher after-tax yields of preferred securities. Here are a few reasons why we believe preferreds make a compelling complement to municipal (“muni”) bonds.
The US unemployment rate is worth singing about, with the widely followed and reported upon Household Survey Unemployment Rate (also known as U3) coming in at 3.6% in October, up ever so slightly from its 50-year low of 3.5% in September. For those who question how representative the Household Survey Unemployment Rate is of today’s US labor market, we would point you toward the less widely followed and reported upon but much more comprehensive U6 unemployment rate, also known as Total Unemployed, Plus All Marginally Attached Workers Plus Total Employed Part Time For Economic Reasons, As A Percent Of All Civilian Labor Force Plus All Marginally Attached Workers.
U.S.-China tariffs may be removed in stages, but deal may take until December. Inflation is likely to stay below targets.
U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply last week, led by longer maturities.1 Investors reacted to speculation that U.S./China tariffs may be rolled back, and Treasury yields made their biggest jump for the week on Thursday.
In the last two months, I have had the pleasure of meeting with clients in a variety of different countries in Europe and Asia, as well as the US. There is one issue that all of these clients are interested in: the US-China trade conflict.
The domestic equity markets returned to a more risk-on posture from the more defensive tone of the previous month. Interest rates were cut for a third consecutive time, planned tariffs on Chinese goods were postponed, and Brexit was delayed for another three months.
The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China has been a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs, Ristuben said. He characterized the week of Nov. 4 as an up week, due in part to comments from the Chinese government that the two countries may be close to reaching an agreement to roll back existing tariffs on each other’s goods.
Labor market seems in good health, earnings continue to beat expectations and a trade deal could occur in December.