This piece is approved to use with clients.
U.S. Presidential Elections and Stock Markets
- We look at historical data to answer two simple questions: “Do U.S. presidential elections really matter for stock markets?” and “Which one leads the other?”
- We find using election dates as a market‑timing indicator is inconclusive, and volatility around presidential elections is slightly less than in other years, contrary to common belief.
- However, stock market returns have historically been good predictors of presidential election outcomes, particularly three‑month returns prior to the election
This report is available as a PDF. To read the full report click the button above to open the report.