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Recession Indicators: Jobless Claims a Key Labor Barometer
The recent job growth in construction and manufacturing is an encouraging sign of economic resilience during COVID-19.
- The weak December jobs report tells a somewhat more optimistic story than the headline figures suggest as the vast majority of job losses were concentrated in the leisure and hospitality industries, which are more exposed to COVID-19 risk.
- Initial jobless claims tend to be highly reflective of real-time conditions, making them useful when trying to gauge if the economy is entering or exiting a recession. After a post-holiday spike, initial claims appear to have peaked for now, consistent with a slowing in the spread of the virus.
- The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard remains firmly in green or expansionary territory, with December job growth in construction and manufacturing an encouraging sign of economic resilience.
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