For traditional fixed income investors, much of the last 40 years have been a relatively enjoyable ride. This benefit has slowly evaporated over the past 10 years, as rates have plunged to near zero and now extreme market turmoil from the COVID-19 pandemic has put investors at a crossroads: high-quality, traditional fixed income will always be a crucial bedrock for investment portfolios but emerging from this crisis with extremely low – or even negative – government bond rates means this “insurance” might become more expensive. It’s no wonder, then, that many investors are viewing the fixed income implications of the COVID-19 crisis as existential.

Despite a violent COVID-driven correction in the first quarter of 2020, markets responded with a rebound throughout the remainder of the year and returns were primarily positive across asset classes. The 2021 Janus Henderson Market GPS Investment Outlook suggests cautious optimism for performance outcomes while exhorting investors to diversify in order to mitigate outlier risks.

At Morningstar Investment Management, our asset allocation approach has drawn on our research spanning five decades. Some lessons have stood the test of time and continue to inform our thinking today. We unpack five key lessons that we believe are vital to be a great asset allocator today.